Paper Title: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
H Liwång, Chalmers University of Technology and Swedish National Defence College, Sweden
J W Ringsberg, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
M Norsell, Swedish National Defence College, Sweden
Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.
Transactions RINA, Vol 154, Part A1, International Journal Maritime Engineering, Jan-Mar 2012
DOI No: 10.3940/rina.ijme.2012.a1.219
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